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Harmonized burning activity calendar

MODIS C6.1 (2000–2025) to VIIRS S-NPP scale. NASA Space Apps 2026 demo. One seed, not a published benchmark.

Color is log2((VIIRS+1)/(MODIS+1)) over 2012–2025. Blue: MODIS sees relatively more. Red: VIIRS sees relatively more. Drag a box, or pick a preset.

Status

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Why the sensors disagree

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Held-out test (2022–2025)

Val year 2021. Residual LightGBM on top of an empirical-Bayes cell-ratio baseline. No raw cell-intensity history features.

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2000–2025 burning calendar

Color is log10(count + 1). Cyan outline: unusual month (|robust z| > 3.5 vs that calendar month’s 2000–2025 median). The dashed line is 2012, when VIIRS begins. Hover a cell for the count, z-score, and model interval. Back-cast years (2000–2011) carry model error.